‘Institutions under siege: Donald Trump’s Attack on the Deep State’ , by John Campbell, A review’
Prepared by Tudor Rickards’ Monday 14 October, 2024.
The most debated political question of the year is arguably ‘Will Donald Trump win the Presidency of the United States for the Second Time? (Or for the third time, as the question might be posed by Trump’s MAGA supporters).
Let’s stick to ‘for the second time’.
The question has increasingly dominated media attention this year, as the likelihood of a second term grew during polls after the Trump v Biden debate.
Then came the period of increasing pressure on Biden to resign. When reluctantly he did resign, vice President Kamala Harris showed as an initial boost in polling numbers, until around two months before polling day on November 5th.
Then the polls settled into an uncomfortable ‘ too close to ‘measure’ position where it remains to today. The fate of the presidency now seems to be resting on a half dozen swing states, as has been often the case in previous elections.
To an observer outside of the United States. It is difficult to make any sense of the assertions and claims being made through the media and more directly by the candidates and ‘surrogates’ or spokespersons.
A safer assessment might be through a careful examination of the performance of Donald Trump in his presidency. I could have chosen from several candidate analyses, but found one providing a mix of well documented evidence and a developed position. The conclusions seem worth further publicity as the election approaches.
The book ‘Institutions under siege’ written by John Campbell, a professor of sociology at Dartmouth College and published in 2023. His earlier work includes scholarly examinations of Donald Trump, and of great economists of the past.
His analysis comes clearly from the position of someone knowledgeable about the subject. It can hardly be called totally biased. Indeed, it risks dismissal from its stance that Donald Trump has QUOTE done a lot of harm to some of our most valuable political institutions. So this book tackles two questions: how bad was the damage Trump caused and how did he manage to cause it? END QUOTE
With this in mind, the evidence is nevertheless presented in impressive scholarly fashion.
The critical incidents of Trump’s presidency are well known, and described as being at ‘tipping points’ which are prone to interventions by a leader, for better or worse.
As Campbell puts it, QUOTE ‘my intent is to shine a light on tipping points and leadership …the crucial point is to understand institutional change you must pay attention to rules and norms …but also to the people responsible for them and the resources available to them’ END QUOTE
He continues his explanation of tipping points by noting QUOTE we have all heard of the straw that breaks the Kamel back… but the last straw doesn’t put itself on the camels back. That requires a person END QUOTE.
The metaphorical straw is examined with a wealth of examples.
The damage to the US judicial system especially to the membership of the Supreme Court.and the general tenor of politics.
The Big Lie, the general claim of the corruption of political function and his promise to ‘drain the swamp’.
The January 6 insurrection which since the book was written, remains an ongoing set of court proceedings against Trump.
Also too late for inclusion are the felony charges of which he has been found guilty.
The author concludes p212
QUOTE
The institutional siege is not over yet … In Hollywood, The sequel to a movie is worse than the original END QUOTE
It is now less than three weeks from the potential premiership of the sequel ‘return of the President’ We will soon have a chance to witness the accuracy of the predictions made in this thought-provoking book.
Posted by Tudor Rickards
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