Sego and Sarko round two: How social identity theory interprets the political process

A Presidential election offers a test of leadership theory. We look to the emerging ideas of social identity to interpret the dynamics of the on-going French contest between Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal. The theory suggests that the voting decision can be seen as the result of a kind of beauty contest. The vote goes to the candidate which most closely matches a mental image of a prototypical (idealized) leader.

Leadership and social identity theory

A recent entry into the leadership textbooks is social identity theory. The fundamental principle is that social actors make sense of their world through their mental maps, which are open to revision, but stable enough to help decision-making in unclear situations. Within the maps, according to social identity theory, we compare and contrast ‘significant others’ such as leaders, lovers, lenders, friends, followers, fashion-setters, and so on. The process is one of sense-making. The charismatic leader is partly created by ourselves. THis is another way of suggesting we get the leaders we deserve.

The theory suggests that our shared understanding of a leader is a social construction. Also, it indicates that preferences, while partly explicable around rationalistic and logical terms, are also influenced by aspirations and psychological needs. The leader is role model, rescuer, and parent. The leader is ‘the person I would like to be’, or ‘the person I would want to help me’. Much research still needs to be done, but we are some way to understanding older puzzles of the charismatic leader.

Which brings us back to the issue under discussion, the continuing battle between Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal.

This is a beauty contest

Social identity theory suggests that we chose our leaders on more than a rational appraisal of their policies. Rather, we vote on grounds of constructed reality of the candidates, tested against what one leadership school has referred to as a leader’s idealised influence. Metaphorically, voters are engaging in selecting the winner of a beauty contest.

Shared social memories mean that our mental libraries of leaders (that is to say, our images of actual leaders) are
By whatever Darwinian process, we have arrived at candidates with considerable physical appeal. The image-makers have not had to work too hard to produce good results, both from photo-opportunities and from the carefully posed press releases.
They could audition successfully as potential stars within the French film industry. On the other hand, I hardly dare to suggest that they share with Ronald Reagan the characteristics out of which a Hollywood-style President could be invented. Hollywoodification and comparisons with a Reagan or a Schwarzenegger would be considered quite inappropriate …

Nicolas Sarkozy, we read, has the impact of a charismatic leader on his followers. Francois Bayrou, still in the public eye as a possible influence in the final stages of the contest, has similar physical appearance at a distance, to Sarkozy. The defeated Le Pen retains echoes of his own earlier charismatic bearing. All three male contenders in the first round matched requisite standards of what a leader ‘should’ look like. As for Segolene Royal, glamorous is one of the frequently used terms to describe her impact, not just on her followers, but on a wider non-politicized public.

The case is a strong one, that in France today, as elsewhere, an attractive physical appearance is a necessary (if not sufficient) quality for a would-be political leader. Whatever else is going on, we are witnessing a beauty contest.

To go more deeply into social identity

To go more deeply into social identity try Michael Hogg’s review of social identity

And the winner is?

The election is only metaphorically a beauty contest. Our theory suggests that the winner is the more beautiful by popular acclaim.

To guess the winner, we might assume there will be little switching by voters who have seen their prototypic leaders win through. We have to consider what happens to the votes of people whose candidates were defeated in the first round. My crude estimate of that puts Sarcozy a smidgeon ahead, a winner by a closer margin than he obtained in the first round of voting. But that’s a view from a different place.

Stop Press: Le Monde reports a voting intention poll showing Sarco still in the lead, but with a slight weakening of his lead over Sego. But there is still the televised debate next Wednesday. Saro says that he’s ahead in the mountains of the Tour de France, but a single slip and all is lost. Not Hollywood then, but maybe Eurosport.

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The Sarco-Sego battle draws closer: The first web-driven Primaries

Two charismatic politicians are expected to contest a fascinating battle to become the next President of France. In the right corner, Nicholas Sarcozy. On the left, the equally newsworthy Segolene Royal. The unfolding story promises to be one in which the new web technologies will play a significant role, as the protagonists attempt to induce more participative democracy into their campaigns. But a surprise candidate appear in the mix? (Updates added)

Update

In just a month, the political pendulum seems to have swung in favour of Sarcozy. Royal has been somewhat error-prone, and has been damaged by inexperience and a lack of deftness (e.g. in remarks in Canada, somewhat touchy about its Anglophone/Francophone tensions).

Talk turns to a late run by centrist politician Francois Bayrou.

Original post
Last night’s TV spot just about made the late-night news in the UK. Edited highlights can be misleading. British commentators concluded that Segolene’s chances now look extremely slim. New technology, a fresh and appealing image, may not be anywhere as important as I suggested…

Can the outcome be so clear, so early in the battle? Do not pendulums swing in both directions?

Original posting (January 14th 2007)

Nicolas Paul Stephane Sarkozy de Nagy-Bocsa – more commonly known as Nicolas Sarkozy was today appointed the centre-right candidate for the French presidency. Rivals within the ruling UMP alliance Rival candidates have dropped out in recent months, leaving Sakozy as the most likely candidate to challenge seriously Segolene Royal. But the French political system tends to be structurally disposed towards complex and potentially fragile alliances. Sakozy has been emerging as a strong challenger but his appointment today is hardly a ringing endorsement.

From the other side of the Channel, the BBC noted that

The 51-year-old was chosen by party members via an internet vote. Just 69% cast a vote, but 98% voted for Mr Sarkozy, who was the only candidate. Some 327,000 UMP members could vote. Many attended a lavish rally in Paris. But President Jacques Chirac was not present, while several senior party figures had said they would abstain ..Mr Sarkozy was aiming for a show of unity, despite bitter divisions at the top of the UMP.

The UMP election process had concluded with a web-based debate between politicians and party members.

Segolene’s web-based campaigning

Segolene had also embraced web technologies energetically in her campaign to win the nomination to represent the left-wing of French politics. She has encouraged participative democracy through her web site and has claimed that the responses have shaped her election platform (details of which were also released on the web).

In Webs we trust

The web-innovations will delight those who see the web as the great new information revolution. There will, naturally be unexpected problems. My attempts to surf the URL sites today met with signal lack of success (or lack of signal success). Royal’s site does appear to be working and playing a part in her campaign.

Some interesting questions

Is France where the first web-based Primaries are taking place? Will Sarkozy survive his most important political battles, namely, against the political enemies on his own side? Will France, who gave a grateful world the concept of Chauvinism, now elect its first female President? Whatever. If French politicians can use Blogs to shape their policies, I too will welcome messages on these questions, concerning the new e-world in which we elect the leaders we deserve.