A tumultuous weekend reveals the leadership morass in the Ukraine

I have hesitated in commenting on the vital issue of Ukraine’s leadership dilemmas, as all seems confusion as regime change takes place

[DEVELOPMENTS WILL BE FOLLOWED AS THIS POST IS UPDATED]

Background

A decade ago, in 2004, Viktor Yanukovych, then Prime Minister, was declared the winner of the presidential elections. The results caused a public outcry regarding illegalities. This resulted in the peaceful Orange Revolution, bringing Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko to power, leaving Viktor Yanukovych in opposition. Yanukovych returned to a position of power in 2006, when he became Prime Minister until snap elections in September 2007 made Yushchenko Prime Minister again who fell out with Yulia Tymoshenko who was imprisoned on corruption charges.

Disputes with Russia over natural gas added to the political tensions far beyond Ukraine. Viktor Yanukovych was again elected President in 2010, although again with charges of electoral illegalities.

Ukraine’s leadership morass

In the space of a few days in late February 2014, bloody events in Kiev have left over a hundred fatalities. These were followed by the flight out by President Yanukovych, release from prison of opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, and implicit acceptance by the authorities and police of the success of the demonstrators.

As can be observed from afar

As much as can be observed from afar, there is little of the triumphalism that accompanied the events of the Arab Spring of 2011. Perhaps the extended and bloody outcomes in Egypt and elsewhere provide a tempering of the mood of the articulate demonstrators willing to speak to Western journalists.

Not as simple

Nor is the story being offered as a triumphal return of an imprisoned heroine who would advance the process of escape from oppression. After her release from prison, Yulia Tymoshenko’s first public appearance and appeal to the people [23 February 2014] received a mixed reception by the crowds in Kiev. it was hardly the return of the savior, which tends to be one in which rationality is secondary to uncritical acclaim.

East is east?

Nor is it as simple as ‘East is East and West is West’ although the geo-political story of a convenient division marked by the Dneiper has been discussed.

Dilemmas

I seek some understanding by wondering about dilemmas facing the various leaders and their supporters.

President Putin would have wanted time to bask in the un-bloodied success of the Winter Olympics at Sochi before permitting Ukraine to take the global headlines.

Angela Merkel who would like to signal support for a new relationship with the West on behalf of the EC, without provoking unwanted reactions from President Yanukovych.

Deposed President Yanukovych would be considering what options are open to him to return to power, or maybe avoid criminal charges.

Yulia Tymoshenko, is street smart enough to know there is no easy route to power, and also for dealing with some unanswered questions about her own track record of corruption for which she was imprisoned.

Vitali Klitschko, best known as former world heavyweight boxing champion. Now an opposition party leader active in the Kiev demonstrations in which over a hundred people were killed. Charismatic? At least very media savvy. He has to assess who might be his most valued allies. I can’t help thinking of former world chess champion Gary Kasparov, whose political career in Russia remains unfulfilled.

February 24th 2014

Arrest warrent made for former President Yanukovych

February 26th 2014

Liberation or mutiny?

February 28th 2014

The southern province of Crimea becomes potential flashpoint for new regime with pro Russian demonstrations

Tuesday March 3rd 2014

Events have moved swiftly. Deposed President calls for Russian help. Russian troops invade Crimea. US, EC, UN seek revolution fearful of escalation into military conflict. Russian finance markets also in turmoil.

Thursday March 5th 2013

War of words between Obama and Putin over Putin’s actions

Monday March 10th

Western Press reports a lack of clear strategy for Crimea coming from Kiev

Euro-drachmas, Football, and the Poll of Poles

The Greek nation prepares itself for elections which are said to risk its exit from the Euro and return to the drachma. Meanwhile, attention in and outside the country turns to the Football championships where the Greeks also face an imminent exit

The football championship of Europe is being contested in Ukraine and Poland. The battle for the Euro also continues. Greece is involved in both contests.

The Greek Elections

The Greek Election have been described as a last chance for the Country to accept the harsh disciplines required for it to receive further financial support of its economy. Polls suggest considerable popular rejection of the authority plans, with the possibility of a return to the old currency. Most external commentators believe this would be a lose-lose result for Greece, for Europe, and to some degree for prospects of more rapid economic growth globally.

The Euros [Football]

Meanwhile the sixteen qualifiers in the European football championships slug it out in the stadia of the joint host-nations Poland and Ukraine. The German team is one of the favourites. But unlike their economy, Spain’s football has triple A status, and expected to meet Germany in the final of the championships.
England’s football currency is weak. The new coach is attempting to succeed through invoking a Thatcherian spirit, establishing a stout defence and refusing to get closer to the methods of their competitors from the Euro-zone.

The Poll of Poles

Poland is in the tournament by virtue of being a co-host with Ukraine. I was much taken by a report of the football frenzy in the country.

One news report [via the BBC, June 16th 2012]] told of internal polls of whether Poland would win its next match and thus secure its place in the knock-out stages. Football experts thought probably not. Politicians predicted a comfortable win. It was nice to learn that a group of forty economists were polled and predicted a close win for the home nation. I haven’t found out the degree of consensus present among the distinguished voters.

According to one financial analyst

Odds are, according to stock markets, Greek voters will not vote pro-Euro, but that won’t matter. Europe will stabilize the situation and provide liquidity to help Europe weather any meltdown in the weeks ahead.
My guess is that Greeks will watch the game first, before they vote, and if their team is humiliated, as expected, they will vote to behave themselves and stay in the eurozone. If their team pulls off an upset, all bets are off.

Postscript

It is typical of a Euro-centric perspective that I omitted to mention a significant poll going on in Egypt, where people are voting this weekend for a New President after the removal of Husni Mubarak.

The process was thrown into chaos with official announcements declaring the recent parliamentary election process invalid.

In the football, Greece triumphed. Poland were eliminated, contrary to predictions of their panel of economists. Politically, the Greeks are still voting [17th June 2012]

To be continued

Is Vladimir Putin a Transformational or a Charismatic Leader?

The question assumes the two categories are ‘either-or’. A better question: are Vlidimir Putin’s behaviours explained better by transformational or charismatic leadership maps?

Beware the ‘Either-or’ question

A quick visit to textbooks of leadership (such as Dilemmas of Leadership) provides ways of answering the questions and explains the difficulties inherent in an ‘either-or’ formulation. One reason is that an either-or perspective overlooks overlooks the key point that in empirical studies, leaders display a full range of styles including transformational and transactional features.

The charismatic leadership map

Charismatic leaders have been mapped from ancient times. The core assumption about them is that they have special skills or gifts so that followers are captivated by them and their ideas.

The transformational leadership map

The transformational map is a modern treatment of leaders (ca 1980s) which acknowledges some features are charismatic. The Transformation leader, as its label implies, transforms the worlds of their followers (which can be local to a team or organization, or global to the leader of a Nation State).

Transformational leaders are assessed most commonly on a scale developed by Bass and Avolio which captures a ‘full range’ of factors including transformational and transactional ones. Transformational leaders mostly require some transactional skills as well.

Other differences

The older maps of charismatic leadership have increasingly been extended to incorporate the ‘dark side’ of charismatic leadership manifest in tyrannical leaders. Transformational leadership has tended to treat tyrannical leaders as a special case. This has produced the so-called ‘Hitler dilemma’ for transformational research.

In part, the difficulty may be seen to require attention to the ‘dark side’ of leaders which is not generally considered.

Putin as a Grand Prix driver

A recent news article from Xinhuanet shows Mr Putin as a Grand Prix driver.

Jeff Schubert’s view

LWD subscriber Jeff Schubert notes

In order to justify his impending return to the presidency, Putin has invoked the cases of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Charles De Gaulle and Helmut Kohl as men who held power for a long time and who have been treated quite well be history – in contrast to Russia’s own Leonid Brezhnev.

Dmitry Peskov, his press secretary has said: “Putin reads all the time, mostly about the history of Russia. He reads memoirs, the memoirs of Russian historical state figures…”

The maps suggest…

If the distinction between transformational and charismatic style holds, a case could be made that Putin fits the older maps of someone who is actively promoted as a charismatic leader more than as the more modern transformational one.

Recent events

Recent events in The Ukraine have brought President Putin into the international spotlight. The western media have tended to mock the assiduous building of his image of the great leader, although with less contempt than in their treatments of North Korea’s incumbent. His decisive military intervention in the Ukrainian crisis has drawn attention to his power to influence world events.

Worth thinking about

Emerging events suggest that Putin is being seen as a modern illustration of The Great Man theory of leadership.. The theory was associated with Thomas Carlyle in the nineteenth century and considers that heroic and rare individuals shape the course of history. The contrary theories suggest that historical situations create powerful leaders. Cometh the hour, cometh the leader…

In many cultures the yearning for a Great Man to emerge and lead the people to greatness or rescue them from danger remains. Students are left to consider why the theory tends to ignore the Great Woman theory of leadership.

Interest in this post increased at the height of the Ukraine crisis [March 2014]. Is someone adding the Lone Ranger style to those attributed to Putin?