PRESIDENT TRUMP

November 9, 2016

img_07961

Today, November 9th 2016, Donald Trump won the election campaign to become the 45th President of The United States of America

His triumph came as a big surprise to political pundits, pollsters, and the majority of politicians. It gives salience to the idea that leadership in a democracy is indeed a reflection of the will of the people who will get the leaders they choose.
Instant reaction is that the victory is through the votes of a majority of white voters, and more specifically under-privileged male white voters disenchanted by the political leadership who chose an outsider promising to reassert lost dreams. Around 60% of white voters supported Mr Trump. The split was even wider among white men.  In contrast, 88% of black voters supported Clinton.
It is essentially the central issue of this site, that democratic systems are grounded in mechanisms believed to serve the will of the majority of the electorate through the process of voting. In America today, the vote has granted Donald Trump the right to take over from President Obama. It is the will of the majority of voters (setting aside the subtle arrangements to avoid the outcome resting on a straight numerical count).
It has been said that representative democracy is the ‘least worse’ of political systems. The people of America, and therefore the rest of us around the globe, now have an opportunity to experience what this means.
To be continued
Image: Yes it does have relevance to the news of the day. Suggestions wecome (and my explanation later).

Hillary duffs up Donald

August 26, 2016

Hillary.jpg

Donald Trump’s recent decline in the polls has been traced to his reactions to the Democrat’s National Conference. Hilary Clinton’s speech was one important and damaging blow before the Kahn family’s interventions

 

I first heard Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech as she was making it, and late into the night European time.  This gave me benefits of live radio (BBC5) as well as its drawbacks.

I missed the opening few minutes, but then listened to its ebb and flow uninterrupted by commentary.  (Except for one brief period when two American voices assessed the impact of  a pre-announced demonstration and walk-out by  Californian delegates supporting Bernie Saunders).

Rehearsed but not over-cooked

The delivery sounded to me rehearsed but not over-rehearsed.  Hillary does not do warmth, and did not attempt to do so.  The voice was familiar, somewhat detached, slightly strident (yes, I know that’s a judgement open to criticism as gender discriminatory. Men are rarely described as strident)

Hillary does Tough better than Warmth

The would-be POTUS may not do Warmth, but has to do Tough.  Hillary mostly let the words carry the Tough message.

Two portions of the speech struck me and rather surprised me.  There was lot of what our own dear Sun or Daily Mail would have sneered at as loony-Leftie stuff of the sort expected from Jeremy Corbin.  Holding Wall Street to account.  Even I.  Did she say that?  Surely I missed some vital qualifiers there. Leveling out inequalities. (Are you listening Bernie?). Whatever, the reception to her words seemed rapturous, but that was more predictable.

Trump kippered

I had wondered how she would deal with Trump.  On this I am more confident.  She kippered him.  It was as clinical and merciless as the weekly going-over which David Cameron handed out to Jeremy Corbin over the last few months.   She took as her main point the megalomaniac claim thatTrump alone could rescue a weak America. She contrasted it with her belief that no President fixes things alone. America is best when it works collectively, the United bit, right? I remembered how Obama had a rare failure when he once tried out that theme. He was challenged for dissing the entrepreneurial giants of big business, and the spirit of free enterprise.

‘Us not me’

Tonight Hillary got across the ‘Us not me’ point well. But how to deal with the giant shadow cast by Husband Bill?  I couldn’t she how that could be done. Hillary just said she had learned how to deal with a lot of bad stuff, and when knocked down got up fighting.  I think the audience got what she was driving at.

Will she be a great President?  I don’t know.  Will she even become President in the first place? I don’t know. Incidentally, the great futurologist Alvin Toffler died this week, but if he had lived I guess he would have found a way of predicting while maintaining residual doubts.

Her remark about not trusting the Presidency to someone easily riled was seized on and maybe will continue to rile the thin-skinned Trump. I do know that today’s speech [July 28, 2016] has not harmed the chances of a woman becoming the next President of the United States of America.

Postscript

Since the post was written, the Trump campaign has dropped further behind Clinton’s efforts. A series of misjudgements starting with the attack on the parents of an American fallen hero appear to have added to Mr Trump’s problems. At the same time, the setbacks may have strengthened his core support.

The campaign remains fascinating to students of politics, leadership, and trainwrecks.


Lesson from New Hampshire: Don’t blink, you might miss something important

January 9, 2008

hillary-clinton.jpghillary-clinton.jpg

Hillary Clinton wins in New Hampshire. The primary contest brought one surprise after another. It showed why this Presidential race will be big box office, and why the Oscars are far from settled. Lesson number one from New Hampshire: Don’t blink. You might miss something important

This presidential contest is threatening to be compelling viewing, defying predictions from moment to moment.

A few months ago

A few month ago, Hillary Clinton was consolidating a long-established lead in polls of public opinion, to win the Democratic nomination, and with every chance of becoming the first Woman, and the second Clinton to become President of the United States of America.

Conditions for change seemed right: concerns about the future, dissatisfaction with the status quo; a plausible alternative leader for the country.

A month ago

Hillary’s momentum appeared to be stalling. Her nomination had been long linked with a down-side. The Clinton legacy was not without its problems. She remained a formidable figure, but was perhaps unable to shake off criticisms which often harked back to unfavourable comparisons with Bill Clinton’s campaigning style and skills. This presented her as lacking in charisma against his gold standard in that precious commodity. And the young upstart Barack Obama was still hanging in there, with his own charismatic style increasingly coming to wider attention around the world. As yet, no convincing leader seemed to be emerging as heir to Bush from the Republicans.

A week ago

Hillary’s momentum had taken a hit with the result in the first presidential primary, in Utah. Barack Obama’s victory, and the manner of his winning revealed him attracting the indies, independent voters beyond his own party, while other candidates were struggling for their share of the committed vote.

The campaign trail moved to New Hampshire. Still no convincing leader seemed to be emerging as heir to Bush from the Republicans.

Twelve hours ago

The exit polls were just emerging. It’s going to be Obama and McCain. Coverage in the UK has been more intense that I can ever remember for an American political campaign. It was the the satellite news media, rather than the internet, that worked best for me in the last hours of the campaign. I switched compulsively (and got pretty much the same emerging story) from excellent coverages on BBC 24 hours and Sky News.

Obama’s boost continued. It was not like the recent Brown bounce here. On electon, Gordon Brown took a big leap in the polls ,after a long period as a poor second to David Cameron. Obamak lagged Clinton, but was never behind in terms of expectations. Now he was exceeding them. He was well on the way to becoming the winner in New Hampshire for the democrats.

One commentator painted a word picture of someone offering the electorate hope. He also suggested that in absence of a similar candidate, republicans may well see the merits of someone of gravitas, a stable, reassuring figure , and yet ‘not one of Bush’s ol’ boys. For him, Senator McCain might just have an edge. This happened to be easier to predict in New Hampshire where McCain had been expected to do well.

An hour ago

Convincing wins for Clinton and McCain.

What?

Hillary bounced back.

How?

One little story (I did not even mention it) was of her losing her composure in a show of emotion in the final days of this campaign. The weepy moment is now being seized upon as a possible turning point. The iron control of Hillary now seen as concealing the emotions of a vulnerable and human person. Maybe. It happens. But it doesn’t explain the incredible last-minute-dotty surprise in the outcome to an outsider like me. And no one saw it in those terms when it happened (or it would have filtered through into the predictions of commentators).

According to the BBC:

Mrs Clinton having closed that gap may, says the BBC’s Kevin Connolly in New Hampshire, be down to an extraordinary moment during her campaigning on Monday when she appeared close to tears as she talked about how much public service meant to her. …BBC’s Justin Webb, reporting from Mrs Clinton’s celebration rally, says she not only repeated her husband’s feat but perhaps improved on it, because the opinion polls, the Obama team and the media had suggested strongly that victory was his. In conceding victory Senator Obama said: “I want to congratulate Senator Clinton on a hard fought victory here in New Hampshire. She did an outstanding job, give her a big round of applause.”

Then there’s the comeback straight-talker

One commentator painted a word picture of Obama as someone offering fresh hope to the electorate. He suggested that in absence of a charismatic young candidate, Republicans may well see the merits of supporting someone of gravitas, a stable, reassuring figure , and yet ‘not one of Bush’s ol’ boys. For him, Senator McCain might just have an edge over other front-running candidates. This happened to be easier to predict in New Hampshire, where McCain had been expected to do well.

And didn’t he do well.